The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry: Who wins? (Pick included)

Ok, so I had planned to introduce my top sports movies on Wednesdays, but I am going to temporarily put that on hold. The reason - Georgia at Auburn, The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. 

For those of you who do not know my story, I grew up a die-hard Auburn fan, as I am from Auburn, AL. However, I decided to attend the University of Georgia because I had originally wanted to go to law school, and going to UA would have been a cardinal sin. So, I chose Georgia instead (Athens made this decision easy as well). 

Despite my dad telling me I would eventually convert to the "dark side," my plan was to remain an Auburn fan. Well, it took about 3 years, but I eventually did convert to the correct side, the Georgia side. So, needless to say, this game has extra meaning for me.

It's interesting being from Auburn and having multiple degrees from UGA because I get to hear both sides before the game. On Auburn's side, most are thrilled at Malzahn's turnaround and are still in a small state of shock that Auburn is even in the BCS discussion. On UGA's side, I'm not sure people know what to think. With an 80% Gurley and Conley (likely) back, are we going to see the team that beat South Carolina and LSU, or the team that struggled against Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Florida? Before I provide my take, I'd like to highlight some important statistics:  

	Georgia	Auburn
Total Offense	478.6	493.3
Total Defense	367.0	394.4
Scoring Offense	38.6	35.6
Scoring Defense	28.8	20.4
Avg Total Defense (SEC opponents)	365.4	399.3
Avg Scoring Defense (SEC opponents)	24.3	28.4
Avg Total Offense (SEC opponents)	415.1	477.5
Avg Scoring Offense (SEC opponents)	31.5	32.5

Here's my take: On paper, overall, these teams seem to be pretty even. The offenses are basically a wash, and even though Georgia is allowing less yards on defense, they are giving up more points.  And, as for opponents, it appears Georgia has played against better defenses, while Auburn has played against better offenses. Thus, it seems logical to turn to the intangibles.

As for the crowd factor: this is the 3rd trip to Jordan-Hare for several of Georgia's players. So, yes, it's worse than playing at Sanford, but coupled with also playing at Clemson and at Tennessee, not sure how much of a factor the crowd will be at this point in the season.

I think Malzahn has done an unbelievable job no matter what Auburn does vs. Georgia and Alabama. However, I am not completely sold that Auburn is ready to compete on a physical level with a team like Georgia. Sure, Auburn upset Texas A&M and destroyed Arkansas and Tennessee, but I'm not sure I would consider these physical teams, as Texas A&M is allowing over 450 yards/game.  Georgia is not as physical as an Alabama or maybe LSU. But, with an at least 80% healthy Gurley, I'm not sure Auburn has faced an offense as balanced and physical as Georgia (except for maybe LSU) and an experienced pocket passer like Murray. 

Further, has anyone checked the score of the last two games in the rivalry? Georgia has owned Auburn. Yes, this is a different Auburn team and different year, but it just depends on how Auburn comes out. If Auburn comes out and scores early, the last two years won't really matter. But, if Georgia should jump out to an early lead, other thoughts may come in. In addition, there's the Nick Marshall factor. Formerly a Georgia player, how are his emotions going to play out in this game?

Ultimately, I believe this game comes down to the play of Nick Marshall. If Nick Marshall manages the offense well, and completes passes when he has to, Auburn stands a great chance of winning, especially in lieu of Georgia's, at times, suspect defense. However, if Georgia's defense pressures Marshall enough to make mistakes early and mentally affect him, then I am banking on Murray's experience and Gurley's effectiveness to win the game. At this moment, if I had to pick, I am going with Georgia.