(1) Alabama at (4) Auburn: The 2013 Iron Bowl Preview

Overview

Wow, what a matchup for the ages. Not just because this is one of the biggest and most hated rivalries in sports, besides Ohio State-Michigan, Yankees-Red Sox, etc., but also because this game plays a potentially critical role in determining the 2013 BCS National Champion.

At the beginning of the year, who would've thought that the previously 3-9 Auburn Tigers (under Gene Chizik) would improve to 10-1 under first year head coach Gus Malzahn and have a realistic shot at beating the two-time defending national champions? Not me.

Before I analyze the matchup, let me first say that Gus Malzahn is a great football coach. For those of you who do not know his story, you should read it on Wikipedia or his official Auburn bio. 

I think that Malzahn is such a great coach that he has the chance to become elite. Right now, there are only 3 coaches in college football that I consider elite: Nick Saban (4 National Titles), Urban Meyer (2 National Titles), and Steve Spurrier (1 National Title). Some of you may disagree with Spurrier at this point in his career, but how many coaches do you know that could do what he's done at South Carolina?

Back to Malzahn...he has been successful offensively everywhere he has been in college: Arkansas, Tulsa, Auburn, Arkansas State (HC) and back to Auburn (HC). Further, when taking the job at Auburn, the biggest perceived weakness about him was experience. So, what did he do? Hire lots of experience around him, including Rodney Garner and Ellis Johnson. Brilliant move? Check. 

Of course, in order for me to consider him elite, he needs to first beat Alabama and then win a national title, or two. I really think he can do this at some point. In only his second year as a college head coach, I would already rank him above Kevin Sumlin, who is a popular name. My problem with Sumlin concerns discipline - he has flat out let Manziel go wild. Malzahn is much more of an authority figure and disciplinarian (kicked off several Auburn players early on) than Sumlin. Ok, onto the matchup...

The Matchup

Instead of giving you a bunch of statistics, here are the two most important determinants of which team wins Saturday's matchup: (1) Nick Marshall's ability to pass and (2) Alabama's offensive line vs. Auburn's defensive line/pass rush.

How well will Nick Marshall be able to pass vs. Alabama?

(1) Nick Marshall

For the Georgia-Auburn preview, I noted that if Nick Marshall could pass the ball effectively, then Auburn could and probably would win. However, I noted that if Marshall was limited as a passer, then Georgia's physicality against the run would probably allow Georgia to win. Both were sort of true.

In the first half, Auburn's offense was very balanced, with a very nice mixture of passing and running, as Nick Marshall was very efficient as a passer. Auburn dominated the first half. In the second half, Georgia made a few offensive and defensive adjustments (in combination with Auburn being a little conservative), and Nick Marshall was less effective as a passer. However, in the end, it was Nick Marshall's arm and a bit of heavenly grace that allowed Auburn to win. 

During the past several years, for the most part, the teams that have beaten Alabama, or come close, have done so with effective passing attacks. Thus, when forced to throw, Nick Marshall must be able to deliver without turning the ball over. If Marshall is able to throw enough to keep Alabama's defense off balance, Auburn will put up yards and points. However, if Marshall is ineffective as a passer, Alabama will adjust and shut down Auburn's run. Ultimately, yes, Auburn has been good offensively, but piling yards on Texas A&M and Georgia is easier than Alabama (this year).

(2) Alabama's Offensive Line

Some Bammers may completely disagree with me on this, but individually, I think Murray and Gurley are better than McCarron and Yeldon respectively. And, Murray and Gurley gave Auburn lots of trouble...in the second half. It took an entire half for Georgia's offense to allow their biggest playmakers to impact the game. The reason?

Most know that individual talent doesn't typically win national championships in football. You must have an elite offensive line for elite skill players to impact an entire game. I do not believe Georgia has an elite offensive line. However, I do believe Alabama has an elite offensive line, which allows very talented skill players, such as McCarron, Yeldon, and Cooper to shine under almost any circumstance.

It will be very interesting to see how much pressure Auburn's pass rush puts on McCarron when passing and how Auburn's defensive line holds up against a physical Alabama running game. Further, due to the fast-paced nature of Auburn's offense, it will be interesting to see how it affects their defense possibly being on the field a decent amount. Will Auburn's defense be able to maintain physical play the entire game? Not sure. 

The Prediction

I am not going to provide a score prediction because that is a major crap shoot in this game. But, with Alabama favored at around 10.5 points by Vegas, I will jump on the Gus Bus to cover the spread.

However, while Auburn has been impressive in victories over Texas A&M and Georgia, I do not have a large enough sample of Auburn consistently beating upper tier teams to pick Auburn to beat Alabama. It's not that I completely doubt or distrust Auburn's abilities, it's that I respect Alabama's process and recent history more. 

Trust me, aside from growing up in Auburn, I want Auburn to win. I think it would be better for the conference from a parity perspective. Yes, the SEC is the best conference in college football, but can we really say it is significantly better than everyone else when the same damn team (Alabama) keeps winning all the national titles? The last team not named Alabama to win the national championship from the SEC was named Auburn. Maybe it's their time again to steal the spotlight from Alabama.