Rivals Week Scorecast

Picks (vs spread)	UGA (-3) @ GT	TXAM @ Mizz (-4.5)	Clem @ SC (-5)	Bama (-10.5) @ AU
Jeremy (29-21)
Brian (26-24)
JD (22-28)
Keppel the Bookie (27-23)
Guest Picks
Lord McFather (25-25)
Bear (30-20)

NOTE: Picks are made against the spread, not straight up. 

(1) Alabama at (4) Auburn: The 2013 Iron Bowl Preview

Overview

Wow, what a matchup for the ages. Not just because this is one of the biggest and most hated rivalries in sports, besides Ohio State-Michigan, Yankees-Red Sox, etc., but also because this game plays a potentially critical role in determining the 2013 BCS National Champion.

At the beginning of the year, who would've thought that the previously 3-9 Auburn Tigers (under Gene Chizik) would improve to 10-1 under first year head coach Gus Malzahn and have a realistic shot at beating the two-time defending national champions? Not me.

Before I analyze the matchup, let me first say that Gus Malzahn is a great football coach. For those of you who do not know his story, you should read it on Wikipedia or his official Auburn bio. 

I think that Malzahn is such a great coach that he has the chance to become elite. Right now, there are only 3 coaches in college football that I consider elite: Nick Saban (4 National Titles), Urban Meyer (2 National Titles), and Steve Spurrier (1 National Title). Some of you may disagree with Spurrier at this point in his career, but how many coaches do you know that could do what he's done at South Carolina?

Back to Malzahn...he has been successful offensively everywhere he has been in college: Arkansas, Tulsa, Auburn, Arkansas State (HC) and back to Auburn (HC). Further, when taking the job at Auburn, the biggest perceived weakness about him was experience. So, what did he do? Hire lots of experience around him, including Rodney Garner and Ellis Johnson. Brilliant move? Check. 

Of course, in order for me to consider him elite, he needs to first beat Alabama and then win a national title, or two. I really think he can do this at some point. In only his second year as a college head coach, I would already rank him above Kevin Sumlin, who is a popular name. My problem with Sumlin concerns discipline - he has flat out let Manziel go wild. Malzahn is much more of an authority figure and disciplinarian (kicked off several Auburn players early on) than Sumlin. Ok, onto the matchup...

The Matchup

Instead of giving you a bunch of statistics, here are the two most important determinants of which team wins Saturday's matchup: (1) Nick Marshall's ability to pass and (2) Alabama's offensive line vs. Auburn's defensive line/pass rush.

How well will Nick Marshall be able to pass vs. Alabama?

(1) Nick Marshall

For the Georgia-Auburn preview, I noted that if Nick Marshall could pass the ball effectively, then Auburn could and probably would win. However, I noted that if Marshall was limited as a passer, then Georgia's physicality against the run would probably allow Georgia to win. Both were sort of true.

In the first half, Auburn's offense was very balanced, with a very nice mixture of passing and running, as Nick Marshall was very efficient as a passer. Auburn dominated the first half. In the second half, Georgia made a few offensive and defensive adjustments (in combination with Auburn being a little conservative), and Nick Marshall was less effective as a passer. However, in the end, it was Nick Marshall's arm and a bit of heavenly grace that allowed Auburn to win. 

During the past several years, for the most part, the teams that have beaten Alabama, or come close, have done so with effective passing attacks. Thus, when forced to throw, Nick Marshall must be able to deliver without turning the ball over. If Marshall is able to throw enough to keep Alabama's defense off balance, Auburn will put up yards and points. However, if Marshall is ineffective as a passer, Alabama will adjust and shut down Auburn's run. Ultimately, yes, Auburn has been good offensively, but piling yards on Texas A&M and Georgia is easier than Alabama (this year).

(2) Alabama's Offensive Line

Some Bammers may completely disagree with me on this, but individually, I think Murray and Gurley are better than McCarron and Yeldon respectively. And, Murray and Gurley gave Auburn lots of trouble...in the second half. It took an entire half for Georgia's offense to allow their biggest playmakers to impact the game. The reason?

Most know that individual talent doesn't typically win national championships in football. You must have an elite offensive line for elite skill players to impact an entire game. I do not believe Georgia has an elite offensive line. However, I do believe Alabama has an elite offensive line, which allows very talented skill players, such as McCarron, Yeldon, and Cooper to shine under almost any circumstance.

It will be very interesting to see how much pressure Auburn's pass rush puts on McCarron when passing and how Auburn's defensive line holds up against a physical Alabama running game. Further, due to the fast-paced nature of Auburn's offense, it will be interesting to see how it affects their defense possibly being on the field a decent amount. Will Auburn's defense be able to maintain physical play the entire game? Not sure. 

The Prediction

I am not going to provide a score prediction because that is a major crap shoot in this game. But, with Alabama favored at around 10.5 points by Vegas, I will jump on the Gus Bus to cover the spread.

However, while Auburn has been impressive in victories over Texas A&M and Georgia, I do not have a large enough sample of Auburn consistently beating upper tier teams to pick Auburn to beat Alabama. It's not that I completely doubt or distrust Auburn's abilities, it's that I respect Alabama's process and recent history more. 

Trust me, aside from growing up in Auburn, I want Auburn to win. I think it would be better for the conference from a parity perspective. Yes, the SEC is the best conference in college football, but can we really say it is significantly better than everyone else when the same damn team (Alabama) keeps winning all the national titles? The last team not named Alabama to win the national championship from the SEC was named Auburn. Maybe it's their time again to steal the spotlight from Alabama. 

Brian's Top Sports Movies: No. 8

8. He Got Game

Spike Lee's story about Jesus Shuttlesworth (Ray Allen) is a very real, honest, and hard movie to take, but it likely portrays the story of a lot of aspiring professional athletes. Shuttlesworth's father, Jake (Denzel Washington), had significant anger issues when Jesus was younger and killed his wife/Jesus's mother in a raging, fluke scenario. 

Jesus is now older and a star high school basketball player in an impoverished suburb of New York City (Coney Island). Amidst family members and friends leeching on Shuttlesworth left and right due to this talent and potential for fame and fortune, Shuttlesworth must decide which university to attend. However, his decision is even further complicated when Jake (imprisoned) informs Jesus that he can be released from prison should he choose Big State University. 

Lee's movie does a nice job of portraying Jesus's struggle with his father, while balancing life, fame, and ambition. A very moving picture and worth seeing while your kids are not around. 

No. 9: Happy Gilmore/Caddyshack/Major League

Brain Droppings...A Playa Hater's Thanksgiving

It's a magical week. Thanksgiving marks the beginning of the holiday season which retailers started before Halloween. We have exactly two weeks left in the college football regular season and it is also officially Rivalry Week. This means that on Thanksgiving, Auburn fans will hold hands with their Alabama fan brother and 48 hours later their relationship resembles that of Silky Johnson and Buck Nasty at the Playa Hater's Ball...

But rivalries are what make college athletics resonate with so many people. Ohio State fans can hate Michigan fans every day of the year. Wisconsin and Minnesota can go to battle on the football field every year to claim the ax of an American myth. UGA can retire the jersey of a player whose most meaningful contribution to the history of Bulldog football was scoring a TD that broke a losing streak of 8 games to their hated rival, Georgia Tech. 

College football rivalry games have names like The Iron Bowl (Alabama/Auburn), the Civil War (Oregon/Oregon State), the Holy War (BYU/Utah), the Egg Bowl (Mississippi/Mississippi State), and Bedlam (Oklahoma/Oklahoma State).

Coaches lose their jobs when they don't win rivalry games. Ask John Cooper or Bill Curry.

However, with conference realignment we are in danger of losing some of the great rivalries across the country and have already lost some of them Pitt and Penn State no longer play in what was once a great rivalry. Pitt also played against West Virginia in what was dubbed the "Backyard Brawl" for many years. Texas and Texas A&M have sacrificed their great rivalry to focus on more money. I hate to see these games go by the wayside and as conferences get bigger and more spread out they become more and more endangered. Of course, new rivalries will be formed. But that takes time and some of the history behind some of the current rivalries is just too good to give up. For instance, Georgia Tech once watered their field for days leading up to their clash with Georgia in order to slow down their dangerous backfield. It worked. Tech won in a big upset.

In 1954 prior to the Oregon/Oregon State game, some Oregon fans snuck onto the Oregon State campus and lit their traditional celebratory bonfire off early. Around 25 were captured and held "prisoner." Their heads were shaved, they were painted Orange and Black and one was forced to to march through campus with sign that read "I'm a Dumb Duck."

Alabama and Auburn refused to play each other for 40 years because they couldn't agree on a per diem for players or where they could find neutral officials. The Alabama House of Representatives had to pass a resolution encouraging the teams to play in 1947 before they met each other on the field again. And stories like this are common.

So on this Thanksgiving week, I'm thankful for the hate that flows between schools once a year for a week (though year round in some cases). It makes for great memories and great games.

1) Damn Good Dawg - Like a lot of UGA fans, I'm also thankful for Aaron Murray this week. His career came to an end last week against Kentucky when he tore his ACL on a designed run. Of course, he wouldn't come out of the game and played two more series and threw a TD before collapsing to the turf and being helped off the field. He has been a great player, a great representative of my alma mater, and from all of the stories coming out in the wake of his injury, an even better person. 

‎http://hopesweethome.com/soul-behind-the-11/

I hate to see him go and wish him luck in whatever his future holds.

2) You Just Never Know - I'm thankful for the unpredictability of college football. You truly never know what is going to happen. A team that was averaging over 60 points a game (Baylor) was held to 17 and blown out by Oklahoma State this past weekend. The Cowboy inexplicably have lost one game to a West Virginia team that will not go to a bowl. The Mountaineers dropped a game to Kansas who hadn't won a conference game in 2 years. A team that has a chance to play for the SEC Championship (South Carolina) lost to one of the worst Tennessee teams in recent memory. Once great Florida dropped it's 6th straight game to Georgia Southern this past weekend. Arizona beat Oregon. Auburn scored on a miracle against Georgia. Wisconsin beat Arizona State because the officials couldn't spot the ball in a timely manner. Every weekend brings something remarkable to the table and I can't wait until I see whatever unfolds this weekend.

3) Ground.Rule.Huddle - I'm thankful for the ability to bring you this blog. Brian and I started it as a way to keep talking sports once he graduated and I continued to work on my degree and it's been a lot of fun. We have had people read from all over the country and more and more look in every week. I don't know if this will ever be anymore than "just fun" for us, but if it never gets any bigger, we'll keep doing it. Please give us your feedback so we can keep improving it. I'm also thankful for our Guest Pickers and other contributors. JD, Lord McFather, and The Bear are real people with real influence on us and they help to make things a lot of fun.

On to the SEC Power Rankings:

14) Arkansas - They lost in the playoff for the worst team in the SEC this past weekend after blowing a 4th Quarter lead. Not sure it's going to get any better for a while.

13) Kentucky - The bad news: they just got beat by 50. the good news: it's basketball season.

12) Tennessee - 2nd straight loss to Vandy who have officially passed them as the best program in the State.

11) Florida - The scary thing is...they could be ranked lower.

10) Mississippi State - With wins over Arkansas and Kentucky, they climb the rankings.

 9) Vanderbilt - The 9th best team has beaten UGA, Florida, and Tennessee which would normally be a great season but only UGA was a solid win.

 8) Ole Miss - It's a little scary that Ole Miss is the 8th best team in the league. They've only lost to #1 Alabama, #4 Auburn, # 5 Missouri, and #19 Texas A&M.

 7) UGA - If Aaron Murray was healthy, I'd rank them above A&M but he's not.

 6) Texas A&M - Their defense is atrocious and LSU made Johnny Manziel look human this weekend. That's not a good combination because Missouri's defense is better.

 5) LSU - Solid performance against A&M. Should win the Golden Boot easily.

3b) South Carolina - I know they beat Mizzou but they don't control their own destiny.

3a) Missouri - Lost to Carolina but are a win away from Atlanta. Plus, they have their QB back.

 2) Auburn - A road loss at LSU early in the season is the only reason they aren't undefeated. Wow.

 1) Alabama - Still 10 points favorites in the Iron Bowl. Bigger Wow.

Week 14 SEC Power Rankings

Brian's Week 14 SEC Power Rankings (and last week's ranking). LSU's win over Texas A&M moves them up. Missouri's projected record improves.

1. Alabama (LW: 1)
Projected Finish: 12-0 

2. Auburn (LW: 2)
Projected Finish: 10-2

3. South Carolina (LW: 3)
Projected Finish: 10-2 

4. Missouri (LW: 4)
Projected Finish: 11-1 

5. LSU (LW: 6)
Projected Finish: 9-3

6. Texas A&M (LW: 5)
Projected Finish: 8-4

7. Georgia (LW: 6)
Projected Finish: 8-4

8. Ole Miss (LW: 8)
Projected Finish: 8-4

9. Vanderbilt (LW: 9)
Projected Finish: 8-4

10. Florida (LW: 10)
11. Tennessee... (LW: 11)
12. Arkansas... (LW: 12)
13. Mississippi State... (LW: 13)
14. Kentucky... (LW: 14)

Video of the Week of the Month

So, I've totally dropped the ball on the Video of the Week for the last few weeks and that's a real shame. Because this video deserved timely recognition. Three weeks ago South Carolina played Mississippi State for their Homecoming game. Kate Bickley created the following video for a competition during the week and in doing so gave our friend, Liz Honey, a run for her money with an upbeat number. Now I think Liz definitely has the better singing voice, but Kate definitely brings a new twist to things. According to YouTube this was the winning video. Better yet, it's out Video of the Week of the Month...

Week 13 Scorecast

Picks (vs spread)	Vandy @ UT (-2.5)	TXAM @ LSU (-4.5)	Baylor (-9.5) @ Ok St	Mizzou (-2.5) @ Ole Miss
Jeremy (27-19)
Brian (23-23)
JD (20-26)
Keppel the Bookie (25-21)
Guest Picks
	Lord  McFather (25-21)
Bear (27-19)

NOTE: Picks are made against the spread, not straight up.