Matchup Overview
Jeremy - They say every team needs a little luck to win a championship. If that's the case then it's going to be hard to pick against Auburn. They've had some spectacular things happen to them on the way to the BCS National Championship. That doesn't mean they aren't a good football team though. They run the ball against everyone and that will certainly aid in this game.
FSU on the other hand hasn't needed much luck. They've dominated their schedule and have yet to play a really close game. This is something that could come back to haunt them if Auburn can hang around. Will FSU crumble at the first sign of adversity?
Here's what I'm looking at:
1) Auburn' Defense - FSU has a legitimate defense. But Auburn has proven they can put points up against anyone. So, I'm looking to see if Auburn can get stops. Jameis Winston has shown he can make the throws that Auburn has had a hard time defending this year. Remember the UGA game? Winston can make those intermediate throws that Murray was able to get against them in the 2nd half. Auburn has to get pressure on him while maintaining contain.
2) Nick Marshall's Accuracy - My guess is FSU is going to load up on the run. That doesn't mean they will stop it, but it will open up an opportunity for Nick Marshall to make plays with his arm. If he can be accurate, it could lead to some big plays which could loosen up the run defense more.
3) Will Experience Count? - Auburn has faced Washington State, LSU, A&M, UGA, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Alabama. They've gotten better as the year has gone on and were playing their best football at the end. FSU has played Pittsburgh, Boston College, Miami, Duke, and Clemson. Only Boston College managed to keep it close. Will Auburn's experience in big games help them in the biggest one of all?
Brian - What an intriguing matchup. This is probably the first time since 2006 (Ohio State/Florida) that the SEC comes in as the underdog, excluding the All-SEC BCS Championship in 2011.
Florida State has been dominant all year, and Auburn has been involved in some of the most improbable finishes ever in college football. I am not going to bring out statistics for this game because the level of competition is a little lopsided. Auburn has undoubtedly played a tougher schedule. Having said that, Florida State has done exactly what they are supposed to, blowing everyone out on their schedule, including a good, but not great, Clemson team on the road.
There are several things that will determine this game:
1) How will the lay-off affect the timing of Auburn's offense? If some of you recall, in 2010, Auburn destroyed South Carolina in the SEC Championship and was playing it's best football in December, but when it played Oregon in January, Auburn did not look nearly as dominant or efficient as in December. I believe the lay-off played a major factor. Some will argue that the lay-off will affect Florida State more because they pass more, but I disagree. Auburn's offense has many moving parts and is heavily dependent on timing.
2) How long will the game stay close? If this is a close ballgame from start to finish, I think it definitely plays in Auburn's favor. Florida State has not played in a close game because they have blown everyone out early. If Florida State dominates early on, then they still may not have to play a close game. But, if Auburn jumps on top or stays within 10 points in the 2nd half, how will Florida State handle adversity? We certainly know Auburn can handle adversity.
3) Jameis Winston. He won the Heisman. He was not charged for criminal offenses. He is a freshman with very talented WRs. Sure, Winston has passed all tests so far this season. And, yes, Auburn's defense isn't the best, notably in the secondary. But, has Winston and the Florida State offensive line played a defensive line as good as Auburn's? Probably not. It will be very interesting to see how Winston handles the spotlight against a very solid defensive front.
Key Player(s)
Jeremy - T. Mason (RB, Auburn) - Can he be as electric as he was in the SEC Championship game. Nick Marshall is an important player and will have to make throws but Auburn is a running team and Mason will have to have a big game in order for them to win. My guess is he'll have to do this against a stacked front.
J. Winston (QB, Florida State) - He's been the man all year. He's the youngest person to ever win the Heisman trophy. He survived all of the talk about his sexual assault case. But, can he perform under the most intense scrutiny of the year against possibly the best defense he's played against all year? Ellis Johnson will throw everything his defense has at Winston. No one has stopped him all year though.
Both of these teams are about their playmakers making plays. If either is contained, then the other team will have the dramatic advantage.
Brian - N. Marshall (QB, Auburn). Even though I have underestimated Auburn against Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri, I have always stated that Auburn will go as far as Marshall. In other words, when forced to pass, can Marshall make throws? He has proven time and time again that he can. We know he can read defenses on the run (he fakes the cameras out all the time). If he can make big throws against Florida State, when forced to pass, Auburn will be able to move the ball effectively.
D. Freeman, K. Williams (RBs, Florida State). I expect Jameis Winston to play to at least a certain level of excellence. He won the Heisman. However, Auburn is a better defense than most of the ones Florida State has played against (except maybe Florida). Beating good teams requires balance. If Freeman and Williams can run the ball effectively in addition to Winston's passing, then I'm not sure Auburn will stop Florida State.
So, basically, in the case of Auburn and Florida State, I am stating that balance must be present. Auburn probably can't just rely on the run, and Florida State probably can't just rely on the pass.
The Key Stat of the Game will be...
Jeremy - It's cliched but turnovers. I see this as a close ballgame and whoever can stand the pressure and make the plays without turning the ball over will come out victorious.
Brian - How many yards rushing will Auburn have? If Florida State holds Auburn under 200 total yards rushing, they stand a good chance. But, if Auburn can run at will like they have recently, then good luck, Florida State.
Outcome Predictions
Jeremy - I think FSU has the better defense here but I also think both offenses will be successful. However, when it comes down to it, I think Jameis Winston will make more plays that Nick Marshall will. Auburn has been a pleasant surprise for the SEC this year but I've been saying for awhile that the streak will finally be stopped Florida State 38 Auburn 30
Brian - Apparently, I can't pick any games correctly (BCS Bowls, Colts, Saints, Chargers, 49ers), and they're all close! I do think Auburn will be able to run effectively, which will allow Marshall to make big throws with less pressure. I don't think Florida State has faced an offense that is even close to Auburn in terms of dynamics. Auburn 38 Florida State 35
